13 predictions for 2006

platano says on Jan 9, 2006, 12:30:

Impossible, Tinto... Uribe's policy of "mano dura," which has been in place for years now, has been attacking the FARC ceaselessly. The pressure has been relentless with support of the best USA soldiers and advisors, the best the world has ever seen, and with USA aid and training providing the Colombian army with top-notch professional fighters and the latest and most deadly equipment.

As Mr. Hollywood always reminds us, FARC is cornered and on the run. FARC numbers are down. Nobody supports them. They are just drug-dealing criminals... etc. etc. etc. and now we are to believe that they can mount the bloodiest six month period of the decade? Bah!

FARC is almost dead. Uribe has probably reduced them to 5,000 or fewer hiding like cowardly animals deep in the jungle.

Date this message should have been written: December 28.

plátano

utopiacowboy says on Jan 9, 2006, 13:18:

Toneloc thinks I am a clueless idiot who has no idea what he is talking about but I was interested to read in the linked article that Tinto posted above several comments which corroborate things I have said here before:

1. "Likely gaining even more seats – often as candidates from traditional and pro-Uribe parties – will be candidates from parts of Colombia under near-total paramilitary domination, especially the north. In many cases, these new legislators will have won without any opposition, thanks to threats against would-be opponents, and with the clear backing of their regions’ warlords. After the 2002 elections, AUC leader Salvatore Mancuso famously told a reporter that the paramilitaries controlled 30 percent of the Congress. Though that number may have been high, it could very plausibly be met or exceeded next March."

2. "“Berna� also is widely believed to have ordered his followers in Medellín to abstain from committing violent crimes, which may be a big factor in the city’s sharply lower murder rate."

Disclaimer: any comment I make is inane and is not to be taken seriously, and is so patently ridiculous that no one should take it seriously, even as an insult.

juancegomez says on Jan 11, 2006, 16:02:

.............. Just another round of glimpses at the same crystal ball, though fairly interesting ones at that.

My opinion is that many of them are reasonable enough, because they stem directly from current events. Others, however, are definitely random. They may or may not come to pass, we can't know for sure.

Tinto:

"I have no idea how the govt defines "captured." We've discussed this before but if they killed 1700 FARC and captured 4700 that's half or a third of the total FARC. That doesn't make any sense unless it's like fishing -- capture and release.

If I was a Colombian citizen and taxpayer, I'd be looking for some answers because they're all lying about the size of the FARC or the govt counts temporary detentions and interviews as "captured" to pump up the numbers."

Well, that may be partially the case. We should also be taking into account that people arrested and only sentenced for "rebellion" (and, of course, not proven guilty on any other counts) have always received mild sentences and, if they behave reasonably well, are back in action after only a couple of years or so. So a degree of recycling is inevitable (ie: a number people that were arrested during Pastrana's term or earlier, for example, are already going back to their groups).

Still, I would also think that, as has been discussed here before, the FARC's (and everybody else's) logistic apparatus and support structure (both voluntary and involuntary in nature) is surely numerous enough to exceed even an additional 20,000 men, by far. Most estimates on FARC's size only include armed guerrillas, AFAIK.

landcruiser77 says on Jan 13, 2006, 11:17:

IM NEGRODAMUS my prediction for 2006,colombia is gonna keep burnin in hell
farc is gonna keep laughing of colombia and making money.
we gonna keeping the hipocresy and talkin about peace
and farc playing with us like a fool
nothing new for you guys.
but there's something new for me this year,you guys blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah b;lha blah blah blah blah blha stop copying others ideas and believing all that kind of shi#t in the tv and newspapers and after this making statements and conclusions. blAH blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah balh blah blah blah blah blah
MY PREDICTION 2006 SAME at ## at $$ like 2005

£æ

cali373 says on Jan 13, 2006, 12:18:

I think 2007 will be better.

Smile if you are a thinker!

Mr. Hollywood says on Jan 13, 2006, 22:20:

Ready! Fire! Aim! Platano, you missed the mark with "As Mr. Hollywood always reminds us..."

I don't believe I've said any of the things you attribute to me. They're just not my views. You can do better than that.

platano says on Jan 13, 2006, 22:30:

Mr. Hollywood, So, you don't believe FARC are drug-dealing criminals? You haven't said you believe the Colombian army has been aggressive and FARC is on the run? You haven't said FARC is losing support because of the atrocities it commits? None of those are your views? How then, do your views differ?

Perhaps I remembered incorrectly. I apologize if I have misrepresented your views. I should have just used a more generic "some people believe", to be safe.

plátano

Mr. Hollywood says on Jan 14, 2006, 22:05:

Here's what you wrote Read you own post, Platano, for both tone and content

"As Mr. Hollywood always reminds us, FARC is cornered and on the run. FARC numbers are down. Nobody supports them. They are just drug-dealing criminals... etc. etc. etc. and now we are to believe that they can mount the bloodiest six month period of the decade? Bah!
FARC is almost dead. Uribe has probably reduced them to 5,000 or fewer hiding like cowardly animals deep in the jungle."

These are the parts I take issue with, since you seem to doubt me: "Always reminds us", always? That's a big word.

"Cornered", never said that. Hard to "corner" anyone with the world's biggest ungoverned jungle and several uncontrolled international borders at their disposal. Weakened, without a doubt, from the time when they had their own FARClandia, but I'd never say cornered.

"Nobody supports them". Nobody? What about the 15,000 to 20,000 FARC themselves? What about their families? What about their friends? What about the people who sell them guns? Food? Do you think I'm a fucking idiot?

"Just drug dealing criminals." No, I frequently argue AGAINST that point of view, which trivializes the entire conflict and the very real social problems in Colombia which make their stated ideology still compelling for some. They are, however, also involved in lots of drugs and crime, which I very well might have pointed out during one of your romantic reminiscences of the hot paisa kidnappers who you had the luck to be held by.

"The FARC are almost dead" Nope never said that.

"Uribe has probably reduced them to 5000 hiding like cowardly animals..." Nope, never said that. I don't think even Uribe himself would say something so stupid.

Next time you get a cucaron in your culo about anything I said, please be sure I actually said it.

Sr Tertius says on Jan 14, 2006, 22:38:

Platano, Hollywood. You should've said "some people believe": it's not very precise, but quite accurate. Some people, particularly here, amazingly DO believe those idiocies.

"I don't think even Uribe himself would say something so stupid."

Maybe not him, but SOME of the people working for him have said things far more stupid. Like Mr. Londoño, his former Uberminister of Interior+Justice, who said that the government had not left "ni una matica de coca" in Putumayo, and that Putumayo was completely pacified. Some of his people are very at odds with reality.

"When the finger points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger" (Chinese proverb)

juancegomez says on Jan 15, 2006, 14:46:

Hmmm... Londoño was the worst example that immediately springs to mind, though it's a safe bet that much of that stems from his preference for grandiose rhetoric (as can/could be seen in the radio show he set up after leaving the government, where he displays both a vast knowledge of literature and culture and a vast lack of common sense)...still, don't think that there's anybody quite like him left in power.

Even Jose Obdulio Gaviria, for example, while he defends often controversial points of view, is not as out of touch with reality as Londoño sometimes seemed to be, from what I can tell (I've been listening to Gaviria and other commentators in Caracol's "Hora 20" recently).