1.00 USD = 1,899.00 COP

RAAAY says on Feb 12, 2008, 05:54:

Imported sofa ...anyone..?

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

RAAAY says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:01:

1.00 USD = 1,897.60 COP ............9.02am

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

NotoriousGIB1K says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:16:

Any predictions and explanations on whether the dollar will be worth more or less COP by late March?

Work to live. Don't live to work.

RAAAY says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:24:

Prediction: late March.......$1 = 1875cop

Explanation: Wishfull thinking.






.
1.00 USD = 1,896.91 COP 9.25am









.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

Saltador says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:30:

Just out of curiosity...do you guys gain financially when the dollar slides? And how?
For me personally, it sucks big time. For every 100 point slide against the peso, my apartment that I'm going to buy costs me an extra 7000 dollars. And might I add that I don't have unlimited funds. Enough of a slide and I can't buy the apartment. Dream gone.
Or is it just other peoples pain that you guys revel in?
Just curious...

RAAAY says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:40:

Salt...........for me..........Im in the import business........strong Peso.....cheaper goods.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

NotoriousGIB1K says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:45:

A bit off topic but, damn nice website Raaay. My type of style as well. I'll be looking you up if I ever end up needing some furniture in Colombia.

Work to live. Don't live to work.

Lowell says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:48:

I've a big family to take care of and this is causing a great deal of hurt. Maybe if things get bad enough there'll be a revolution against the very peope who are gaining at this time. In my barrio and when I talk to people around town, they're becoming very unsettled about the rise in the price of goods, the problem with the peso and the knowledge that the wealthy are getting more wealthy. I know a whole lot of people who receive money from family outside of Colombia. The family can't afford to send more, so the Colombians suffer. Something will eventually need to give.

Alfred E. Newman. "What. Me Worry?"

NotoriousGIB1K says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:50:

I don't get why the hell the value of the dollar vs COP can fluctuate so much. Back in 2007.09.10 17:19:16 UTC 1$ = 2199 (Raaay's old post) & now it's 1.00 USD = 1,896.91 COP 9.25am WTF!

I'm happy that it makes things cheaper for you Raaay, but for me I was planning a trip in March & I may just hold out if it keeps dropping.

Work to live. Don't live to work.

RAAAY says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:53:

Lowell.........the strong Peso is not the reason for all the things you ..........


Of all you said............the only thing that is affected by the strong Peso is the money coming from family overseas......this is a definate negative.......

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

wendell13 says on Feb 12, 2008, 06:56:

I agree that I wish it wouldn't fluctuate so much...last year I lost about 17% with the decline of the dollar and the Colombian inflation rate. Another year like last year and I am out of here

robi666 says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:03:

A few years ago Colombians were going to Venezuela to work and to support their family sending Bolivars.
Now the same Colombians are being helped from home.
And this is a true story.

Lowell, Ray is right. Not much to do with the strong Peso.
Inflation has been much higher in the past and no revolution. The day that the security problem will be addressed, then we may see a revolution...

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

Lowell says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:09:

OK, I just hate to see people who work very hard to make ends meet now have it harder. That's all.

Alfred E. Newman. "What. Me Worry?"

wendell13 says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:13:

An interesting thought robi.....you are exactly right on the Colombian inflation rates in the past.

RAAAY says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:17:

Nortori...........If you are really extravagant whilst in Medellin on your vacation.....you might spend $1000............right now that'll get you about 1 mil 850,000...........

Your whole trip will cost you around 50 bucks more than it would've cost one month ago......but as a vacation......it's still the best value around.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

jh816 says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:18:

The biggest factors affecting exchange rates are interest rates, inflation, and relative economic growth (all all are interconnected)

The central bank of Colombia has been increasing the interest rate (to stave off inflation) while the US bank has been cutting (to stimulate the econ.) this means investors get a better rate with Colombian debt and increases the demand (and hence the price) of pesos. Inflation will make a currency weaker and less expensive, though right now inflation in Col. is only a few percent more than the US and so not enough to overcome the other two factors. Relative economic growth is the big one, that guides the other two. If the economy is growing faster (as it is in Col. versus the US) foriegn investors are buying more investments because of the better return (hence again increasing the demand for pesos to buy investments).

It is hard to say what is a cyclical anomoly and what is a trend. If you look at last year around this time, and many other years, we saw a decrease in the rate (weakening dollar) until towards the end of the year when it came back up. The overall trend has definately been to a weak dollar though. Weak dollar equals less money for those earning in dollars or living off investments in dollars.

With the current situation, I wouldn't be suprised if it falls back down around 1850/$ until coming back up to stabilize around 1980/$ again. Personally, I'm a free market economist, so I say let it fluctuate. The businesses that can't cope will go out of business and make the market stronger.

wendell13 says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:39:

Good analysis....

Some interesting facts about the Colombian economy

Est. 2007 GDP is 116 billion US of which 28.39 billion is exports. Around 25% of the GDP

Number 1 trading partner is the US with 35% of exports to the US with Venezuela second with 11.4%

Problems with possible US recession and problems with Chavez will definately affect the Colombian economy. Colombia is not some isolated island that is immune to US and Venezuelan problems

My facts are from the CIA World Fact Book

NotoriousGIB1K says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:47:

True Raaay, but I've already calculated my spending budget while there & it made roughly a $150.00 difference based on the fact I was planning 2000 COP per $1. LOL - That's halfway to buying a PS3 I've been holding out on.

I'm sure I'll still go as long as it doesn't drop more then another 100 COP. However if there's news later on that suggests dollar vs COP ratio may change in the near future in my favor I'll definitely hold out.

Work to live. Don't live to work.

NotoriousGIB1K says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:50:

jh816 thanks for the explanation. When do you think it might stabilize around $1980 again?

Work to live. Don't live to work.

RAAAY says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:54:

Notor..............it's getting closer...........1.00 USD = 1,903.00 COP

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

vicshere says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:55:

notGIB if 150 bucks is that important to you..should you be traveling...me personally if I thought and was worried about going 50 -150 over budget ..I wouldn't travel...but that just me..different strokes

listo

hongo_joe says on Feb 12, 2008, 07:58:

Has anyone noticed a decrease in prices (imports) in Colombia since the peso has increased in value. (except raaay's furniture - which looks pretty nice)?

sloopskipper says on Feb 12, 2008, 08:01:

Raay sez, "Your whole trip will cost you around 50 bucks more than it would've cost one month ago......but as a vacation......it's still the best value around."

But that is chump change compared to buying real estate, furniture, etc, maybe a car.

jonas says on Feb 12, 2008, 08:11:

hongo joe I guess imported cars did decrease a little in price

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

sloopskipper says on Feb 12, 2008, 08:19:

BUT, if you're spending $s . . . . .

spigrimace says on Feb 12, 2008, 08:23:

The strong peso is also good for ex-pats that sent dollars down 3 or more years ago probably between 2500-2800 and either let it sit in CDT´s, or that made businesses and are making a living in pesos, and now might start spoonfeeding back into dollars. Or perohaps they sent down dollars in that timeframe and bought real estate and now may wish to capitalize by selling their properties for a gain as real estate went up nicely and also revert the funds back to dollars for even more gain. It´s nice if you´re sitting on a 100% gain in property value and then 30% in FX gain.

sloopskipper says on Feb 12, 2008, 08:26:

Colombian Peso Appreciates, Breaking COP1,900 Threshold
Tue, Feb 12 2008, 14:31 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

Colombian Peso Appreciates, Breaking COP1,900 Threshold

BOGOTA (Dow Jones)--Colombia's peso appreciated early Tuesday, breaking the 1,900 pesos per dollar threshold, a level not seen since June last year.

The peso fell below the COP1,900 threshold and was trading at COP1,898.40 to the dollar as of 8:52 a.m. (1352 GMT) from COP1,910 on Monday.

"Anticipating further rate cuts in the U.S. and possibly more rate increases in Colombia, local banks sold dollars," said Alejandro Carrero, head of research at Suma Valores.

Carrero believes the Federal Reserve may cut its key interest-rate target to 2.25% at March's monetary policy meeting, down from the current of 3% level.

Meanwhile, the Colombian central bank could increase its interest rates to as much as 10% toward year-end in a bid to control inflation, Carrero added.

A rate cut in the U.S. and possible rate increases in Colombia is already propelling flows of offshore funds into Colombia to take advantage of the spread between U.S. and local rates. The Colombian benchmark rate currently stands at 9.5%.

The Colombian peso appreciated 11% last year, boosted by foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment and remittances from Colombians living abroad.

Meanwhile, in the equity market, the IGBC stock index advanced 0.7% to 9,295.47 points as of 9:07 a.m. (1407 GMT), propelled by other stock markets in region such as Brazil and Chile.

Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark government peso-denominated bond maturing in 2020 fell slightly to 11.149% from 11.161% at Monday's close.

-By Diana Delgado, Dow Jones Newswires; 57-1-6001980; diana.delgado at dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 12, 2008 09:31 ET (14:31 GMT)


Copyright 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

sloopskipper says on Feb 12, 2008, 08:34:

Sure spigrimace,

I was able to enjoy appreciation in Panamá (but of course no exchange advantage), but seems I am late to the party in Colombia, and the market has turned against me as well. :(

MaFe says on Feb 12, 2008, 11:27:

Lowell I agree with u...

"All human actions have one or more of these seven causes: chance, nature, compulsions, habit, reason, passion, desire. "-Aristotle

Waterdawg says on Feb 12, 2008, 11:42:

Sad that when ever you have a bunch of Gringos ( like myself ) talking money it's all about the Money and them .. I live and work in a basic Industry here , and just like the flower industry ; folk " ARE " going to loose some better paying jobs.. Almost all of my Biz. Amigos ( Colombian ) are talking about letting folks go now.. Anyone who dosn't see the cost of living going up dosn't live or shop where I do in Bogota ..

The talk of a free market economy is great when you have a half ass level playing field ..

tomtom33 says on Feb 12, 2008, 12:41:

Rubi, when the poor Colombians lose their export-related jobs like packing and growing flowers, it hurts them.

Frank Rizzo says on Feb 12, 2008, 12:48:

ugggg...what a depressing thread......

rocinante says on Feb 12, 2008, 13:42:

C'mon Lowell! OK Only quoting your post:

But before I do remember two things:

99% of this country get's paid in pesos. They couldn't give a rat's ass about the exchange rate. All they care about regarding economics is inflation and unemployment.

Colombia's only retail staple import is cars - and tech if Colombia can consider personal computers and printers and iPods and Flat screen TVs staples. Colombia is only affected by petroleum markets on a global level and the other comodities Colombia produces see list or doesn't use (precious metals): coal, livestock, grain, PORKBELLIES, natural gas......

Agriculture, medicine, clothing, textiles and raw materials for contsruction, labor etc... all come from within. If 90% of Colombia's clients went into recession who cares? Those countries would still always consume Coffee and Bananas which are THE big majority of Colombia's legal exports.

"Maybe if things get bad enough there'll be a revolution against the very peope who are gaining at this time." Lowell

The US is gaining and controlling the FX - feel free to take them on. The only ones starting a revolution are those getting paid in USD living in Colombia (heavily invested in the US) and the sex tourist who has to alter vacation plans back to Costa Rica.

"In my barrio and when I talk to people around town, they're becoming very unsettled about the rise in the price of goods, the problem with the peso and the knowledge that the wealthy are getting more wealthy." Lowell

I highly doubt 2 ladies standing over the chicharon in your barrio are attributing inflation with the rate of the USD to the COP. Probably because they are both financial wizards and understand that in Colombia the current exchange rate with the USD has little to do with Inlfation of thigs they buy every day. We will have to wait a few months, if not years to see the affect of Colombia's Central back's results for printing money. Regarding inflation: The last figures state that inflation was super low at 5.7%. This country has been faced with 20% and 30% in recent past with a crapier economy and survived just fine. I would venture to guess that EVERY person, in every corner of the globe for the past 50 years would say prices are getting high and the wealthy are getting wealthier. It's just a basic conversation.

The people I talk to applaud the current administration and say that every year Colombia becomes better and better - this is an economic conversation I am having regarding employment and wages. Not the exchange rate.

"Something will eventually need to give."Lowell

Yeah, the US economy. Wait until 1st/2nd qtr 2009 and maybe one might see 1500/1600 from the 1400 low coming in November. I can't be sure about that - obviously it's my speculation.

Someone asked about possible March peso rates. By mid March, and no major economic/political changes, you may see the peso under 1800 to the buck on it's way down. JMNSHO.

Someone posted the chart a few days ago but here it is again only for 3 months. Not much is going to change until now and the election - the current trends will most likely continue their momentum. That is why I post a 3 month chart:



Remember the dollar has hung at lower than COP1000 without a revolution. Currencies fluctuate.

You live in CO, are subject to its inflation, BUT are not profiting in pesos from the econimic boom and are subject to currency exchange swings. Has anyone been doing what I just described for more than 5 years and still lives in Colombia? I know no one.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

RAAAY says on Feb 12, 2008, 14:08:

.



RAAAY says on Friday August 24th, 2007 9:16: edit



.................the Colombian econmy is headed in an upward motion for at least the next ten years to fifteen years......................The peso will maintain a nice steady 1500 to the dollar..............although it will probably take another 12 months to find that level............Colombian exporters will adjust to the new levels and will maintain competitiveness and our balance of trade with the US will improve hugely when congress finally ratifys the current TA sometime around 2009......................there will be a workable peace with FARC possibly as early as 2010............and the resulting peace dividend will be another huge shot into an economy which by then will be growing at anywere between 6 and 9%........................memories of being able to buy an apartment in Poblato or any other upmarket neighbourhood in Colombia for $100,000 US will be just that......memories...........

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

jh816 says on Feb 12, 2008, 18:09:

Wow, some pretty bold predictions RAAAY. It'd be great if it happened...but I don't know. How do you come by your 1500/$ rate prediction? I agree with the continued weakness of the dollar, but that's a huge move. (not to mention the FARC truce prediction)

Colombia currenty imports 28% of total 24 billion from the US. These imports are now cheaper and more competitive. They do hurt the local businesses but not nearly as much as everyone complains about. Also, their exports have become more expensive and therefore the demand has decreased. Sure, if you are a flower worker, it sucks because your industry is directly involved, but what about the net effect? Cheaper import goods are helping to keep inflation low (less expensive goods) and so are a positive for the rest of the people.

jonas says on Feb 12, 2008, 18:20:

jh816 but then there is the point where Colombian politics reallllllyyyyy knows how protect against imports, ask me or any other importer... :-( Whenever they want they simply shut the borders on you
But yes, I do very much agree with you

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

Frank Rizzo says on Feb 12, 2008, 19:18:

Raay and jonas....i'm no MBA.... I just don't see how this helps Colombia. This poor exchange rate really eats you up on constant transfers. If anything, it would seem to really slow the above ground economy.

I guess the underground economy is so strong in the real export of colombia that it "trickles down"????

jonas says on Feb 12, 2008, 19:52:

Frankyboy, I wouldn´t know how this helps the country either... but does it help the US in any way? Just asking the same question...

Let the world go round

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

poco says on Feb 12, 2008, 19:54:

Lowell Quote: In my barrio and when I talk to people around town, they're becoming very unsettled about the rise in the price of goods.

The rise in the price of goods has nothing to do with a weak dollar / strong peso. Actually, some, if not all imported goods goods from the U.S. cost LESS, a LOT LESS than they did a few years ago. Ie: 2,800 pesos per dollar.

I’d tend to believe the minimum wage increase over the last three or four years has a LOT to do with the internal inflation. For instance,, insurance premiums are TIED to any rise in the minimum wage. When the minimum wage goes up 5%, the rise in insurance premiums will increase the EXACT same amount.

Every company with employees will raise their prices AT LEAST enough to cover their costs and probably a few percentage points more. This means EVERYTHING cost more and this cost can be seen immediately. Gas, electricity, water, yep they all go up.

So,, in January of this year the wage went up about 5% and a lot of items increased about 10% in cost. No one came out ahead,, no one. Their overall financial condition is WORSE. Worse yet,, those that don’t make minimum wage are in really bad shape.

The Colombians KNOW this, it’s not news.

Plus,, and this is kind of funny,, everyone wanted ethanol fuel,, that increased the price off corn to all time highs. Now you can have fuel but no food.



I'd agree that the average Colombian doesn't care about the exchange rate,,, EXCEPT,, those getting their pesos from a family member working in the U.S.

We think Colombia,, but what about those on fixed dollar incomes living in Europe. Those people need to convert dollars to EUROS and some are returning to the U.S. Those remaining in Europe,, well,, I guess they are cutting back or at a minimum "bitching" about their plight.

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

jonas says on Feb 12, 2008, 20:02:

poco I so much agree with you! Especially the point that wages are raised 6% or as you state 5% and everything goes up 10%. So true, and nobody says a thing, everybody is just used to this. This is steering into the wrong direction. With these politics we will never see a middle class again... now should we say we miss the 80s and Pablo? So sad!

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

Frank Rizzo says on Feb 12, 2008, 23:40:

Unfortunately, I don't think there is a quality work ethic for anything that they could export that would catch the attention of the west or east. Emerging conuntries can get it cheaper from china and india with much better quality.

Even Colombians don't want a toyota made in colombia...they will pay 10-20% more for a toyota made in japan.

poco says on Feb 13, 2008, 00:25:

Frank,, I'd say you are absolutely correct although I'd remove the word QUALITY,, my observations make me think a majority do not have any kind of a work ethic,, period. This is especially evident with "High School" dropouts or graduated but didn't learn the basics. When I was in school they were called "hoods",, now "losers" seems the appropriate term.

The only business that seems viable is the development of a medical industry. The Doctors and Dentists appear capable of world class work. I've had Dental work and the price was quite reasonable. Almost every Colombian kid,, OK,, where I live,,, has braces.

My guess is the cost is about 8 to 1 as compared to the U.S.,, easily pays for airfare.

Money should flow into the country. The trickle down effect,,,, you know,, the thing many people say does not exist/work,,, anyway,, airlines, taxi drivers, hotels, medical support, receptionists, maids, nurses, new clinics, new buildings, construction, maintenance, restaurants, etc. the list of those who benefit is quite long.

Those seeking affordable medical care that isn't paid by their "system" would pump quite a bit of money into the country.

This is happening now and shouldn't be difficult to dramatically expand. Colombia could OFFICIALLY become the lipo dental implant capital of the world.

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

tomtom33 says on Feb 13, 2008, 04:31:

However, Colombia needs a bullshit clean-up brigade big-time. If that can be accomplished, the sky's the limit.

And the peso will be where the peso will be.

aztec says on Feb 13, 2008, 05:59:

Two observations and not meant to be judgmental of anything. Just our current experiences with the Colombian economy.

My wife and I help her sister and disable nephew by sending funds every month. We have seen an increase in the trend line in the exchange rate every month for the last two years. It has reached a point where the amount is slightly above the annual wage for a Colombian citizen.

To say the least the increase in the peso will soon require we make a decision on whether to discontinue increasing our part of the equation thereby resulting in a lower subsistence amount for her sister.

On another matter, for some time we have been working with two highly qualified and connected real estate agents in Bogotá. They are both advising that the Bogotá market at the higher end has become a temporary sellers market.

They also believe illegal money is flowing through the real estate market. This "cleaning" activity has accounted for some of the artificial increase in real estate prices.

The mood among the real estate professionals is that the market will cool off in the next year or two and prices will begin to trend downward.

webmanco says on Feb 13, 2008, 08:39:

But, I'm going to start making some assumptions here.... Which means I might actually end up making an ass out of myself ..........Thu 04 17, 2008 11:34 am

rocinante says on Feb 13, 2008, 08:40:

Aztec - agreed. I am buying realestate in mid to late 2009.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

rocinante says on Feb 13, 2008, 08:56:

Why the peso will probably not hit 2200 any time soon if ever.

Many things quickly affect exhange rates when a country and their economy are volatile. Think small countries. I'm not going even going to mention interest rates.

But when a country is stable a great effort is needed to move the currency.

Gone are the days of Escobar and who ever mentiond him is a genius.

In order to have a strong currency a country needs to be politically and finacially stable with growth and resources. NOW Colombia has this. Currency is a lagging indicator of a country's worth, stability, position in the global market of many countries and of the currency it is being valued against (a huge factor I will not address until the very end - the US).

Colombia is SOOOOO much more stable, has and always had resources, non cyclical exports and is pretty self sufficent in regards to internal resources. The political picture is stable and all of this has been steadily rising for the past 5 or so years.

This lagging indicator property of currency is why currencies are not highly volatile. Unless there is somthing big that happens. Currencies move in trends over long periods. This ain't equity options.

Colombia is getting "better and better" in all aspects that drive currency exchage rates. The only gringo living here tyhe last time the dollar was fewtching 3000 was DWMTE.

Colombia would need a very big political or economic collapse OR the US would need to surge tremendously in order for the dollar to see 2200 again. I don't see any of this happenning soon. Does anyone?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

jh816 says on Feb 13, 2008, 12:05:

Assumptions: Colombian interest rate 10%
US interest rate 3.25%
Colombian rate of inflation 4%
US rate of inflation 2.5%
With these assumptions, the currency rate comes out to about 1818/$ in a year's time.

The Col. central bank is expected to raise rates to 10%, but I believe this will be about it. The slowdown in the US will help to cool off the economy and they won't have to worry too much about inflation. Inflation will come down to 4%, but will not come down as much as they would hope because of government spending. The Col. central bank is also getting a lot of pressure for the interest rate's effect on exchange, and this will help to cap their actions.

The Fed will lower interest rates one more time to convince everyone they are serious about recession worries, but they really can't ignore the inflation picture either. I believe inflation will come up to 2.5% (above the Fed's target) but they won't be able to raise rates because of the economy.

Now, there is a lot of "noise" that can (and will) happen to effect rates. I think the Fed is focusing too much on the economy and not enough on inflation, which could mean that inflation surges to much higher levels (3-4%). Something could happen anyday with Venezuela, which would have huge consequences on the Colombian economy. The Colombian government just released further plans to aid industries effected by the revaluation, this along with every other social program, will keep Colombian inflation high.

12 month prediction range 1727-1908/$

poco says on Feb 13, 2008, 13:22:

Rubito Quote: If they can do it with medical and dental care they can do it with other value-added industries as well.

I don't see this as being easy in the next 10 years. The general work force has a poor work ethic. The public education system seems to be following the trend of the U.S. ie: downward for the last 30 years.

Medical system would rely on educated and trained professionals. One good surgeon could entice many foreigners into the country resulting in employment for those who want to work.

One poorly educated person with a crappy work ethic will be a drag.

"Violence is the first refuge of the incompetent" - Isaac Asimov

rocinante says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:03:

"With these assumptions, the currency rate comes out to about 1818/$ in a year's time" - jh826

Too bad those asumptions fluctuate and are asumptions.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

gringoloid says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:07:

would you fellas like to start a pool on where each of us thinks the peso will be, say on January 1, 2009? or some other date? ten dollars each.

RAAAY says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:15:

I'm on...............

also......maybe if we could get 500 or so to participate............we could have Sklyer hold onto the $5000 for the winner .............

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

podborski says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:16:

I'm in loid!

I say...mmm...2251.

oh wait, I've played these games before, if I was smart I'd wait until everyone else guesses, then i could pick an outlier and increase my odds of winning dramatically.

I cleaned up at the office pools all the time with this trick.

RAAAY says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:21:

Gringoloid............put me down for $1 = 1525 cop...............

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

gringoloid says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:22:

alright then, i'll keep track after all bets are in........i'm saying 2,062.

pool closes one week from today.

RAAAY says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:34:

are we sending the money to Skyler..........from the..." should I bother paying my debt post "

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

Frank Rizzo says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:44:

man RAAAY.....i hope it doesn't go that low...that's depressing....holy moly...if it does i know 12-15 colombians in a remodeling crew that will be out of work.

gringoloid says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:50:

frank, you going to jump in on this?

Frank Rizzo says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:55:

jajajaja....no gringoloid.....it's outta my expertise. I just remeber the good ol' days at 2500.... god that was good......!!

I have to say, it seems that prices have gone up in colombia, (even not taking into acount the poor exchange).....just everything.!!

What is the range for a typical executive lunch now??

Robert Jorge says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:58:

5 mil

--"I believe in making the world safe for our children. But not for our children's children, because I don't think that children should be having sex." - Jack Handy

Frank Rizzo says on Feb 13, 2008, 19:00:

Now that makes me feel better RJ.....jajaja.aa......fingers crossed here...

goin_south says on Feb 13, 2008, 19:10:

hey, sexy foto, RAAAAY.. and, RJ, that dog is a bit friendly...looks like a sexual thing to me, that the proprietor may have a problem with...

........but, anyway.....1899 SUCKS.

and, thank you.

RAAAY says on Feb 13, 2008, 19:21:

R.J...........5 mil seems low now...........have you seen that price yourself..........??

I have'nt seen anything under 6.5 since new year.........I would say the range now is 6 - 9..

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

robi666 says on Feb 13, 2008, 19:27:

Last place we went is 5400, Ray. We took some extra (coke, coffee) and left some tips.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

robi666 says on Feb 13, 2008, 19:31:

Ray, Ken is pretty confused about the way that you have to take tomorrow. I send you an email.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

rocinante says on Feb 13, 2008, 19:53:

1495 = COP - USD 1/1/2009

I'll bet a buck

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

robi666 says on Feb 13, 2008, 19:55:

One plate of Arroz de Lisa on the beach in Santa Marta = 900 Pesos.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

RAAAY says on Feb 13, 2008, 20:05:

robi666 says

... " Last place we went is 5400,".........

Well...how would I know...........cheap-ass place that you picked..........you f**kers told me to leave 10,000 on the table...........so you lads left 5400.....x 3 + 10,000 = average of 6,500......
.....so.........ye conned me ...and stole my soup..........

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

Robert Jorge says on Feb 13, 2008, 20:12:

The last time I ate "executive lunches" was in Bogota 11.5 months ago. The average price was about 5 mil. 8 to 10 mil would be extreme and a ridiculous amount of food. Hell, one place was / is in the Tequendama complex! I am sure it is a little more now - but I doubt the average meal price would be more than 6 mil. And these are good, large, robust meals with beef, chicken, bread, rice, beans, etc.

--"I believe in making the world safe for our children. But not for our children's children, because I don't think that children should be having sex." - Jack Handy

goin_south says on Feb 13, 2008, 20:14:

you'll bet a buck?
roci.. what's bringin on all the confidence?

I'd say: no way.
maybe 1700's.. and, I hope not.
then again, after the usa pres election... late 2009... who knows what transpires in Col between now and then... could be back over 2000:1

and, thank you.

robi666 says on Feb 13, 2008, 21:16:

Ray, you left 7000 or 8000 and so do I... some have been drinking coke and not jugo or guarapo... we had coffee... we have been occupying that table for two hours, they could have seated 4 or 8 more people... that's why I wanted to leave some more money.

"I am a citizen of the most beautiful nation on earth. A nation whose laws are harsh yet simple, a nation that never cheats, which is immense and without borders, where life is lived in the present."

pedro says on Feb 13, 2008, 21:40:

I'll join, put me down for 2090.

Now if I lose... hopefully the dollar tanks and by 1st of January my 10 dollar ante won't be worth chit. ;o)

que nota!

RAAAY says on Feb 14, 2008, 04:18:

Hey............F**kin eye-talian...........I know I left 7000.........I was joking.....aggghhhhhhh

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

podborski says on Feb 14, 2008, 04:20:

RAAAY and I are wishfully thinking

But see what I mean RAAAY? roci came in and picked a number just under yours, now he has everything below that (until someone else picks 1494, that would teach him)

gringoloid says on Feb 14, 2008, 06:42:

goin south, cmon, you have to give an exact number. pod, i'm going to turn this into a live thread in a few days and we should get more entrants.

rocinante says on Feb 14, 2008, 08:55:

GS I hear ya "then again, after the usa pres election... late 2009... who knows what transpires in Col between now and then"

What transpires in the US is more important. But the first of the year 2009 is what the contest is for. I think by mid to late 2009 the peso will be settled and back up to 1600-1700 range.

No one will ever get paid, this is not a real contest. My guess, 1495 has nothing to do with anyone else's guess.

Pod if you're concerned that my 1495 wild guess prediction will automatically get me 1494, 1493, 1492 ... -2000, than let's make a rule that disqualifies predictions over 50 points away from the real closing on Dec 30th.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

podborski says on Feb 14, 2008, 09:31:

jaja I'm just kidding roci, we'll let loid set the rules : )

RAAAY says on Feb 19, 2008, 07:30:

Live rates at 2008.02.19 15:27:30 UTC

1.00 USD = 1,886.00 COP

United States Dollars Colombia Pesos
1 USD = 1,886.00 COP 1 COP = 0.000530223 USD

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

MitchAlvarez says on Feb 19, 2008, 07:54:

ese berraco bajo todos los dias ome!! uy no eso no esta bueno.

Tengale miedo a una huelga de mujeres o a una escasez de aguardiente. :)

rocinante says on Feb 27, 2008, 08:44:

1847 at 11:23 EST and now 1853 at 11:38

Someone is tagging at the support level - What support level?

This is the thread with the bets

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

tejasmarcos says on Feb 27, 2008, 08:47:

it's dropping like a weight......

wtf?

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

rocinante says on Feb 27, 2008, 08:58:

1851 at 11:53

Make this your home page:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/americas_currencies.html

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

pedro says on Feb 27, 2008, 09:03:

Eur/Usd $1.50 was an important psychological level, it seems.

Being that it's broken that level and not reversed... the dollar is getting further smashed against all currencies that I track.

I think this dollar weakness is overdone. But for the moment, the market will overshoot. Volatility is a constant feature in today's marketplace.

que nota!

jonas says on Feb 27, 2008, 09:22:

Great explanation on why the greenback is getting shredded can be found at www.dailypfennig.com

What I have, I do not want to lose, but Where I am I do not want to stay, but those I love, I do not want to leave, but those I know I no longer want to see, but Where I die, I do not want to go;I want to stay where I have never been

Mononoke28 says on Feb 27, 2008, 10:52:

So this damn dollar keeps going down and it's completely screwing me! Augh!!!!!!!!! I hate it!

Diana

podborski says on Feb 27, 2008, 13:27:

do I get a prize for being most wrong?

oh wait I still have almost a year

RAAAY says on Feb 28, 2008, 09:26:

...........Live rates at 2008.02.28 17:22:30 UTC

1.00 USD = 1,843.10 COP

United States Dollars Colombia Pesos

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

Mononoke28 says on Feb 28, 2008, 10:08:

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!! >(

Diana

RAAAY says on Feb 28, 2008, 10:52:

it's now 1838...............

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

tejasmarcos says on Feb 28, 2008, 12:57:

atleast the currency traders are having a merry ole time. i knew i should have bought that late night infomercial cd on forex a few years back. d-ooooooooooooo!

my glass is getting shorter on whiskey, ice and water...

goin_south says on Feb 28, 2008, 13:13:

WHO DROPPED OUT?
what happened? someone flat on their back?

and, thank you.

rocinante says on Jun 22, 2008, 08:50:

I can't believe rubi has 1700 for Jan 1st 2009! What an optimist!

This is the thread where someone altered their prediction months later before the edit was rmoved. They are still off....

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008

podborski says on Jun 22, 2008, 14:30:

pretty clear that i didn't change my prediction:

"I say...mmm...2251"

good thing I changed my day job...but there's still time left!

RAAAY says on Jun 22, 2008, 20:24:

Rubito says

.... " Yeah but NB I'm the closest to the mark right now. "
..........." it's between me and you."

????????..........Rubito....What about meeeeee.............??

..." RAAAY says on Feb 13, 2008, 18:21: flag

Gringoloid............put me down for $1 = 1525 cop..............."


.

.........Its useless to argue with ignorance

goin_south says on Jun 22, 2008, 21:16:

Forever, my Q, Rubito: cuando?
any updates available?

and, thank you.

goin_south says on Jun 23, 2008, 06:11:

hey, but....it looks like....the one-way tickets are muy barrato

and, thank you.